Author Topic: Secrets of Success on eBay  (Read 89200 times)

Roo

  • Knights of the RT
  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 3994
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #50 on: October 25, 2009, 03:16:21 PM »
I don't believe so Roo. Are you a collector?

Not a serious collector Tinker...but I do have a few odd coins laying around the place that I may have the coinees look at one day.
Thank you Tellomon.

I've been told to ignore the insults so I will do that.

Maybe just better to put some :bgirlpanties: on and just accept the posters here as individuals with unique posting styles and ideas. ;)


One question though....Who were you looking for when you joined this site?  Perhaps we can help you with that question.. ;D


mandurahmum

  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 2560
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #51 on: October 25, 2009, 03:21:32 PM »
tinker - what do you collect?  I dont recognise you as a coinee

tinker

  • New Knight
  • *
  • Posts: 30
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #52 on: October 25, 2009, 03:38:22 PM »

I started collecting coins / notes recently; I don't post on the chatboards. I read for information only. mandurahmum no you wouldn't recognise me as I am not using my eBay ID. (kind of glad I didn't now)

The way things are right now I am not feeling very comfortable giving out who I know etc, sorry if this is being evasive but I would rather not.

I would rather leave it at that and let you all carry on.

Cheers.



Roo

  • Knights of the RT
  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 3994
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #53 on: October 25, 2009, 03:48:34 PM »
One question though....Who were you looking for when you joined this site?  Perhaps we can help you with that question..

Just in case you missed me asking this one.... ;)

mandurahmum

  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 2560
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #54 on: October 25, 2009, 03:56:17 PM »
Tinker, that is fine.  I hope that you will message me and let me know your id - I will keep it confidential, and if you recognise me, you will know that I am not a troublemaker nor someone that cant be trusted.

I do need to know, and maybe you could also let me know who referred you to this site please.

Thanks 

Jane


tinker

  • New Knight
  • *
  • Posts: 30
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #55 on: October 25, 2009, 04:04:59 PM »
I have found the person thank you.

I'll be happy to let you know if I chose to stay, at this point I may not.



Roo

  • Knights of the RT
  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 3994
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #56 on: October 25, 2009, 04:09:01 PM »
I have found the person thank you.

I'll be happy to let you know if I chose to stay, at this point I may not.




Yeah...sure.... :filenails:

lady rose

  • Rosieloins/Katyettes
  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 5114
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #57 on: October 25, 2009, 04:17:06 PM »
Dear me. what is all that about, pot and kettles and stuff LOL

tinker

  • New Knight
  • *
  • Posts: 30
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #58 on: October 25, 2009, 04:18:12 PM »
Is there an issue you need to air as well??

What is with you lot?

Yeah sure, what does that mean??

You're all so nasty it's a wonder there is anyone here at all!!!!!!

Anyone else want to "have a go" come on, let it all out guys!!

This is ridiculous!!

Roo

  • Knights of the RT
  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 3994
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #59 on: October 25, 2009, 04:21:27 PM »
Anyone else want to "have a go" come on, let it all out guys!!

Sorry Tinky....we ain't biting today..lol

*Ubbie Max*

  • Knights of the RT
  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 10139
  • Never take a knife to a gunfight
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #60 on: October 25, 2009, 04:24:32 PM »
Re Reply #59, "What is with you lot?"

What do you mean by that comment? There is nothing wrong with we lot. Many of we lot have been posting here since this the creation of this web site and we lot enjoy the friendly banter that frequently occurs. Those who do not like the way the OZ Round Table operates generally do not stay & that is their prerogative.   

mandurahmum

  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 2560
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #61 on: October 25, 2009, 04:25:22 PM »
Tinker, I know you were not referring to me - I hope not.

I will ask again, please tell me who you are.  I need this for security reasons.  I need to ensure that all coin members are legit and not here to cause problems.

We would welcome your input in anything coin related.

But again, I need to know who you are?  If you have a problem with that - let me know.  You can message me by clicking under my avator in the bubble.

Thanks  Jane

*Yibida*

  • Action Group
  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 17998
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #62 on: October 25, 2009, 04:29:29 PM »
 :troll2: :fishing:

*smee*

  • Action Group
  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 46860
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #63 on: October 27, 2009, 01:42:55 AM »
The Rolex guy even appears to be buying his own Best Offers to try to create the impression that his stuff is moving! (I come to that conclusion because of the mostly chronological contiguous groupings of his “sales” see “Completed listings” and that none of the Best Offer sales (of any real value) have, as yet, had any feedback left for them.)


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2bwLOagul8

tellomon

  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 51418
  • You don't get everything you want at Tello's.
    • facebook
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #64 on: October 27, 2009, 06:28:10 AM »
Those who do not like the way the OZ Round Table operates generally do not stay & that is their prerogative.

That list of names izzint long but their written in large lettering.
It reads like a "who's who" of Board Whiners who couldn't make it as a.....

:troll2:
"The B@zturd Love Child of Comix & a News Organization"

*CountessA*

  • Administrator
  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 35154
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #65 on: October 27, 2009, 08:08:13 AM »
It seems there's a bit of confusion about Best Offers - how they work, what benefits they offer (or not), the whole nuts and bolts of it.

Would someone like to start a topic giving the Intimate Diary Secrets of a Best Offer?
"No man is an Iland, intire of it selfe; every man is ...a part of the maine; ...any mans death diminishes me, because I am involved in Mankinde"

tellomon

  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 51418
  • You don't get everything you want at Tello's.
    • facebook
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #66 on: October 28, 2009, 05:52:37 AM »
Would someone like to start a topic giving the Intimate Diary Secrets of a Best Offer?

I'm thinking of something more epic, disporportionate and LOUD:

e-Commerce Wars!
      "The Thread To End All Threads"


"The B@zturd Love Child of Comix & a News Organization"

Philip.Cohen

  • Knight of the RT
  • ****
  • Posts: 350
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #67 on: October 29, 2009, 07:44:50 PM »
Smee / Tinker / Anybody else that is interested,

Again, I spent six years as a managing partner in a traditional auction business. I think that during that time I acquired a pretty good understanding of how auctions can be manipulated by unscrupulous auctioneers / sellers / colluding buyers; and I also learnt something about the psychology involved in the process of motivating potential buyers to bid at an auction sale.

Unfortunately, many of the unscrupulous (indeed, criminal) activities that potentially plague traditional auctions may also be observed in online auctions, particularly if the online “auctioneer” has no interest in controlling such criminal activities. eBay’s “proxy” bidding system is quite unacceptably open to serious abuse by both unscrupulous sellers and colluding buyers but, as predominantly a buyer, I am primarily interested in the activities of unscrupulous sellers.

Nothing kills a multi-item traditional auction faster than the attending buyers receiving the impression that nothing is selling, and the same psychology applies to selling on eBay. There is no criminality involved but the measure of the skill of a good auctioneer is his ability to maintain the excitement of the sale by giving the impression that everything is selling even when some may not be.

For the same reason an online seller may choose to bid on or buy their own goods occasionally (not simply unintentionally as a result of failed shill bidding on an auction), knowing that they can then easily avoid eBay’s FVF on such “sales”, and for a miniscule cost give watchers the impression that their stuff is moving even when it isn’t.

I would suggest that those of you who cannot comprehend of such tactics by a seller really do not have a complete understanding of the psychology involved in the “black art” of selling by auction.

Would you believe that some buyers look at a seller’s “completed listings” to ascertain whether or not there has been any interest in the seller’s goods. What impression do you think potential buyers get if they see a never-ending stream of non sales?

The “traditional” auction can be a very dangerous place, not simply because you may finish up paying more for an item than it may otherwise be truly worth on the day, but because you may have little chance of getting even half of what you paid for it back at a resale the following day. Online auctions—if the “auctioneer” is interested in controlling such criminal activity—should not be so dangerous, particularly not so for the great many people that buy at such online auctions and are accepting of eBay’s deceptive claims about the security of their auctions, and are therefore naïve about the possibilities of being defrauded in such transactions.

The material difference between traditional auctions such as Christie’s or Sotheby’s and online auctions is that at the traditional auction you have no way of knowing that you have just been taken to the cleaners, whereas online auctions have all the details digitally recorded and, where such details are publicly available, one has some chance of ascertaining if any untoward activity has taken place.

That is undoubtedly the reason why eBay is incrementally making its sale formats less and less transparent: they don’t like being regularly exposed as knowing facilitators of such criminal activity.

Anyway, just for fun, I have recorded the eBay numbers of BeckerTime’s successful “Best Offer” transactions for the past 14 days, to which list I will continue to add later non-auction sales. The list then initially comprised 29 supposedly successful non-auction sales (out of a total of approx 700 listings) with sales-ending dates starting on 13 October.

Now, we would not expect the most recent transactions to have any feedback yet but I thought that maybe some of the earlier ones might, by now (27 October), have some feedback.

And, yes, there is, for one minor item sold on 14 October for $349.

Let’s hope that my hypothesis is wrong and that all the happy purchasers of these items will leave feedback for the remainder of the items over the coming weeks.

Funny though, the successful “sales”, both Best Offers and auctions, seem to appear usually in little chronologically contiguous groups; like, the seller could not even be bothered spreading the successful “sales” around a bit over the day—undoubtedly, few buyers would notice such patterns anyway.

So, again, I would reiterate my suspicions about the genuineness of many of this seller’s “sales” and my view that, of those auction sales that are real sales, the genuine buyers have invariably been defrauded.

Here is the link to the current crop of BeckerTime’s completed listings:
http://completed.shop.ebay.com.au/beckertime/m.html?LH_Complete=1&_trkparms=65%253A13%257C66%253A4%257C39%253A1&_ipg=&_sc=1&_sop=13&_trksid=p3911.c0.m14&_pgn=1

Spend five minutes and have a look through the listing and see if you think that there is anything unusual about the groupings of the few “sales” in amongst the very, very, many non-sales.

And, don’t forget that, if any number of these sales are indeed not genuine, eBay cannot but be aware of such activity as any such pseudo sales will be followed by an FVF-avoidance claim of “buyer did not pay”.

Where is our other resident eBay apologist? I’m sure that Riff too would have been only to happy to express an opposing opinion on this matter.

Am I distrustful of eBay? You betcha—totally distrustful! Do I think that they are doing anything to protect buyers from the unscrupulous sellers that now appear to plague eBay? No, I do not. And the fact of that matter truly is a shame. Still the current eBay management are only interested in themselves and their “performance” bonuses, of which there will undoubtedly be none in the medium future. Maybe Meg Whitman is smarter that she looks—she got out of eBay while the going was relatively good.
“Today we’re dealing with phase two or phase three [he can’t even remember which one] of disruptive innovation. We’ve had the disruption, now we must disrupt our own disruption.”—John Donahoe (2007).

*smee*

  • Action Group
  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 46860
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #68 on: October 29, 2009, 08:46:55 PM »
Ok Phil I would be very interested to see the results ... I trust that you will record  the actual results and report on them as actual fact and not manipulate , bend , fabricate or out right lie about or add any hypotheticals to them , lets just see the results as they come back and take it  from there...

just a couple of quick questions if I may ... and I would ask that you give them proper consideration and a thoughful short honest reply..... not kneejerk poppycock ...

Do you honestly think that you posting comments such as this help your cause or will  people be less likely to give your theories consideration  ? Frankly, I find it difficult to believe that you are not an eBay stooge and that your sole reason for being is to drag a smelly red herring around._________________   or in retrospect do you think it was perhaps a foolish  statement ? (no harm in admitting it , we have all posted stuff that sometimes we wish we could take back , in fact I notice that the removal of part of one of your earlier posts actually changed the perspective a little and possibly fooled some late comers to the thread ... I call that the Shuggy manouvre.... nice one  )  

Have you taken the time to have a quick look at and now better understand in part how ebays best offer listings work ? and if so do you conceed it is different to how you first thought?

*Ubbie Max*

  • Knights of the RT
  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 10139
  • Never take a knife to a gunfight
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #69 on: October 29, 2009, 09:21:16 PM »
Keelhaul all buyers who submit stupid Best Offers. whattya reckon Smee.

*smee*

  • Action Group
  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 46860
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #70 on: October 29, 2009, 09:25:40 PM »
oh and yes I concede that I spelt concede as conceed instead of concede

*Ubbie Max*

  • Knights of the RT
  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 10139
  • Never take a knife to a gunfight
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #71 on: October 29, 2009, 09:28:59 PM »
I thought conseed was a Greek orange pip

*smee*

  • Action Group
  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 46860
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #72 on: October 29, 2009, 09:32:54 PM »
 :roflmao: :roflmao: and I bet you dont like oranges !

*FluffyDuckee*

  • Knights of the RT
  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 6452
  • Waves to everyone
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #73 on: October 29, 2009, 11:07:44 PM »
Evening all,

Phillip, your work re schill bidding is well regarded and if you have spreadsheets containing proof - well that is what we need to successfully fight it and thank you.  I can see you mention you have had experience in a real life action house, so I can see this background would give you understanding of the auction process.

From the perspective of someone looking on from a distance to all this discussion, I did think by your own admission, that the reference to sellers 'schilling' Best Offers related to a hypothetical theory you had that you are still yet to prove.  Am I correct in this perception?

I think in reference to auction schill bidding, noone is disputing that it exists and I can verify from personal experience when I have bought things it does.  I have watched my bid get suddenly pushed up and up immediately after I have made it when there is no other bids for sometimes days before!!

Having used Best Offer myself as a Seller in the past a few times, I would have to admit that I do find it hard to understand why any seller would buy their own items, again and again and again.  The reasons for this are:

1.  To do this on a regular basis, which is what I would need to do to 'keep interest', I would have to either pay constant FV fees OR constantly go through the dispute resolution process to withdraw the sale.  This would take a huge amount of administrative overhead and draw Ebay's and everyone else's attention to me as a seller, who never got any feedback or feedback by the same people over and over again or would drain my financial resources if I didn't go through the dispute resolution centre.

2.  If I went down the path as discussed in point one, I can't see any real benefit.  Until any offer is accepted, the item appears on the listing and therefore searches at the full BIN price until the end of the listing (unless sold of course in which case it won't appear at all).  If the seller buys it himself, he would have to pay for it before it would record as a sale and he would have to leave his own feedback, which is what buyers tend to look at.  If he backs out of the 'sale' there is no record in the feedback to indicate previous interest in the item to potential buyers.  I am aware that there is a 'history' of offers that can be seen - if one knows how to find it.  This does not show what each buyer is offering and for this to be of any benefit to the seller, he would have to make offers to himself and then reject them or let them lapse, which happens to all offers after 48 hours.  He wouldn't for the reasons I have outlined, accept them, so every offer would appear to potential buyers as unfulfilled.  Once the listing is finished, having been unsold, potential buyers would have to search on a completed listing which would require a lot of digging.  Most  buyers usually simply check feedback.  So as you can see it is my consideration, that to schill BIN best offer would require a lot of work on the part of both the buyer and the seller for little if not, no gain.   There are also  no second chance offers if a sellers buys his own BIN as there is at auction.

I can see the 'benefit' of schill bidding to the seller, (which doesn't mean I advocate it) because in most cases, the seller doesn't end up buying the item, but still has a very visible interest, movement and price progression. Specifically, they:

a.  Nibble the price up to the maximum offered by a bidder.  If they go over the maximum bid they can withdraw it and it goes back to the previous highest bid or if the seller actually wins the item, they can offer a 2nd chance offer (will still pay fees unless they go through a mutual cancellation).  So put another way, the seller can schill, win the item and still win by offering a 2nd chance offer.  (This cannot happen with BIN)

b.  Movement is easily visible on an auction.  The schill gives the impression of movement and interest and as expressed in point a, pushes the price up.  

Any activity on the BIN Best Offer would only be easily visible during the life of the listing.  Even then, most buyers would not know how to find the offer listing visible to buyers.  I didn't until the other day and I only know because it was pointed out to me by someone else on these forums. I have found no reference to it in Ebays help guides.

The buyer cannot even if they know where to find this listing see what the maximum price is offered by other buyers and therefore their offer may be well below a previously rejected offer.  At least with an auction, whilst they may not know the highest price offered by another bidder, they are not in a position to offer less.  Eg if the auction has reached $10, they may offer $12, but will not offer $8.

So to sum up, I think it is highly unlikely that sellers would buy their own BIN via best offer and if they tried it they would soon stop as it is of little or no benefit.  I do believe that some sellers schill their own auctions.  However one needs to be very careful here in naming names unless sure, as you do get genuine buyers who nibble and some buyers who just love certain sellers and their products.
:duckling:

*Ubbie Max*

  • Knights of the RT
  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 10139
  • Never take a knife to a gunfight
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #74 on: October 29, 2009, 11:10:49 PM »
Yep your right Smee, I hate oranges, evil things!

*wheels*

  • Knights of the RT
  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 8000
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #75 on: October 29, 2009, 11:29:22 PM »

*FluffyDuckee*

  • Knights of the RT
  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 6452
  • Waves to everyone
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #76 on: October 29, 2009, 11:30:44 PM »
That's one evil looking orange Wheelie!!!   ;D
:duckling:

*smee*

  • Action Group
  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 46860
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #77 on: October 29, 2009, 11:36:11 PM »
Yes its frightening ... I wish it would PITH off

*wheels*

  • Knights of the RT
  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 8000
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #78 on: October 29, 2009, 11:38:25 PM »
 ;D  I was actually looking for an 'orange' pepsi max but couldn't find one so this was the next best thing!

Roo

  • Knights of the RT
  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 3994
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #79 on: October 31, 2009, 12:38:06 AM »
I have been pondering this issue for  while now....and do have a few points to make.

Ebay have changed the whole concept of searches recently..and I have the impression that Large Volume sellers can manipulate their sales figures to bring the bulk of their listings onto the front pages of searches.

I'm pretty sure that some of their Account Managers are well aware of the best tactics to do this....and would regularly pass on the tips to their sellers.

It has been mentioned before that one of the things that will assure a seller that their listings are bumped to the top, is for them to have a lot of that item sell.

This may not work for sellers of low cost items...but for those that sell stuff in the 100's of dollars area..a few dollars lost in fake bids wouldn't even touch the sides, let alone affect their profit margins..especially if their items regularly attracted top billing on ebay.

Proving this theory is a whole other kettle of fish though...and who do you complain to?

Philip.Cohen

  • Knight of the RT
  • ****
  • Posts: 350
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #80 on: October 31, 2009, 02:05:57 AM »
Smee,

I thought the reference to "smelly red herring" was quite reasonable and could not be more accurate for the comments of my opponent, "Tradguy". You apparently managed to read the drivel about statistical analysis that he offered in rebuttal of my OP; what other conclusion could one come to as to the purpose of his comment other than “red herring”?

Tradguy has been following me around for the past 18 months; he, like our own resident eBay apologist, RiffRaff, only ever comments in the negative on my posts critical of eBay. My considered opinion is that both he and Riff are most probably eBay employees, or possibly shill bidding sellers, but most probably eBay employees.

Whether my responses to their comments help "my case" or not I really don't care. I simply present some facts and comment thereon. Hopefully, the people who read my posts will be a little more on guard to the very real dangers of being defrauded when buying on eBay.

For those that are blind or simply choose to not see, for whatever reason, so be it. I accept that there is no way that any argument that I could put forward could elicit from either RiffRaff or Tradguy an acknowledgement that shill bidding is even a minor problem on eBay. I believe, indeed I know, that shill bidding by professional sellers is rampant on eBay and that probably a large majority of professional sellers are shill bidding. Buyers should be aware of that situation.

One of the advantages of posting on AuctionBytes is that posts can be edited ad infinitum, and I do take advantage of that ability. I note such editing with a “revised date” and if you look closely you may notice that some of my posts have been edited 100s of times. I never claimed to be a gifted writer; it’s hard work, and I can’t resist continuing to try to refine whatever it is that I have written so that the message is clear and free of any ambiguity and is supportable by the facts—unlike the great majority of statements that emanate from eBay’s Department of Spin.

And I am a little disappointed that you express a concern that I might falsify the facts to bolster my criticisms of eBay; my criticisms are shaped by the facts, not the reverse, and if you require proof of that you can always do a random audit on some of those facts that I present. As I have said elsewhere, I enjoy dabbling on eBay; I have no wish to damage eBay, I simply don’t enjoy having to be on constant alert for the eBay-facilitated shill bidders, about which it can be demonstrated that eBay, contrary to their claims, does nothing proactively and what they do reactively appears to be little more than a charade.

Fluffy*Duckee,

My hypothesis about seller beckertime’s possibly buying some of his own Best Offers is simply an extension of what appears to be much winning of many of his auctions by regularly-appearing IDs and the fact that successful sales are often contiguous in small daily groups. Anyway, as I have said, I’ve recorded the numbers of the successful Best Offers for the past 14 days and time will tell if there is anything strange going on, although one cannot guarantee that a genuine buyer will leave feedback (and in such cases eBay should leave nominal feedback by default after a period of time).

Your comments on Best Offer are taken. I don’t suggest that there is any “fraud” involved per se; if as you say, you can’t know what others have offered; it’s more to give the impression that expensive items are moving via the Buy It Now or Best Offer process; there is no direct intention to “gain an advantage or cause a loss”, just create activity.

Only auctions can be analysed in any depth (but not UK auctions: the sophisticated shill has free reign in the UK) and so only auctions are recorded in the spreadsheet; I can only say, look at the data in the spreadsheet, see all the unsuccessful common bidders; see the number of common bidders that have made very many bids on many auctions but whose feedback count never, or very rarely, increments.

These are Rolex watches and I understand that some people do collect such items, but so many bidders with single digit feedback, or high value feedback and nibble bidding, etc. And, although I have not recorded descriptions, I am pretty sure that I noticed the same nice ladies Rolex three or four times; unfortunately it’s not practical to record and compare every detail—only eBay, with some effort, could programmatically do that!   

Having said that, if you look at the data you will see that the majority of those IDs that have bid on more than one auction and have won an auction, have only won that one auction, but five IDs have won 2–3 auctions; it’s possible that the former simply wanted a Rolex watch and the latter are collectors of Rolex watches. However, there are a number of underbidder IDs that have bid on so many auctions and have never won anything and so they would have to be suspect. One ID (“s***s (3637-59)”) has bid on 31 auctions and only recently actually won one (200396867202); ended 28 October; watch for feedback). A number of other IDs have bid on between two and eighteen auctions but never won any of them. Many other of the common non-winning bidding IDs appear on individual auctions sometimes a week or two apart. Again, the number of auctions bid on by some individual IDs rises steadily through 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 15, 18, with that one at 31.

Also, as you can see by the very high number of bids on many of these auctions, there is a great deal of nibble bidding thereon; although I have made provision for such detail in the spreadsheet, I have not attempted to collect that detail nor flag those IDs that are doing the nibble bidding; too much work involved. (Maybe some programmer will one day write a program that will collect all the appropriate info for such analysis.)

With respect to the administrative work involved, there is also much administrative work involved in making the many multiple-ID shill bids that I believe this seller is making. When sellers start auctions at 99c for items worth some thousands you have to know that they are going to have some mechanism for insuring that they get the price they want. And there’s no less work involved in avoiding the FVF on a self-bought failed shill-bidded auction. Regardless, they cannot allow the punters to get the impression that nothing, or very little, is selling; punters have to be encouraged to get in there and compete, and I would suggest that the spreadsheet analysis suggests that this seller is creating much of that appearance of completion all by himself.
 
It’s not obvious from simply perusing the spreadsheet but as I update the data on a daily basis it noticeable that there is a pattern of “rolling” IDs in and out of use on the auctions, and usually, but not always, many of the common IDs have single digit feedback counts. I have observed this effect on many other sellers auctions in the spreadsheet to the point where I seriously wonder if some third party might be supplying some sort of automated shill bidding service.

If the above appears to be getting a little ratty that’s because I’m having trouble keeping track of all the possibilities.
 
As a matter of interest the following are the numbers for those successful Best Offers:

BeckerTime
"Best Offer"
360202265059
200397583259
360199352480
200397583256
360199352479
200394667510
200395035603
360198764751
370275309734
200397226497
370274829106
360199663626
360199352481
200397218604
360200240541
200393594454
360198462643
200396103878
370276267265
200396489602
200395364651
360198152418
360197856702
360198462652
360198457850
200391887521
370275295753
360195811898
370272809033
360197543782
360195215688
370272804967
200391174064
370273281599
370273819517
 

Sold for
$7,800.00
$6,600.00
$2,799.99
$22,000.00
$2,000.00
$4,250.00
$1,750.00
$2,000.00
$3,000.00
$200.00
$4,999.00
$4,500.00
$1,999.00
$2,100.00
$2,050.00
$2,200.00
$8,000.00
$1,799.00
$3,969.00
$4,999.00
$3,970.00
$1,750.00
$1,999.00
$2,500.00
$6,000.00
$3,000.00
$4,799.00
$1,925.00
$3,000.00
$349.00
$2,299.00
$4,500.00
$3,150.00
$3,900.00
$2,000.00
 

End date
30-Oct-09
29-Oct-09
28-Oct-09
28-Oct-09
27-Oct-09
25-Oct-09
25-Oct-09
25-Oct-09
25-Oct-09
24-Oct-09
24-Oct-09
24-Oct-09
24-Oct-09
24-Oct-09
22-Oct-09
22-Oct-09
22-Oct-09
21-Oct-09
21-Oct-09
21-Oct-09
20-Oct-09
18-Oct-09
18-Oct-09
18-Oct-09
17-Oct-09
17-Oct-09
16-Oct-09
15-Oct-09
15-Oct-09
14-Oct-09
14-Oct-09
14-Oct-09
13-Oct-09
13-Oct-09
13-Oct-09
 
Buyer left
feedback





30-Oct-09














27-Oct-09








24-Oct-09





 
“Today we’re dealing with phase two or phase three [he can’t even remember which one] of disruptive innovation. We’ve had the disruption, now we must disrupt our own disruption.”—John Donahoe (2007).

*smee*

  • Action Group
  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 46860
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #81 on: October 31, 2009, 02:18:50 AM »
Phil , is there any danger that you might address the questions I have posed to you ???? you have partially answered one .....

and I am not refering to you modifying posts on Auctiva , You know darn well what I am refering to ... the removal of an outright insulting statement to me which was removed after I responded to make it look like I was the antagonist .... that was gutless !!!

I would ask if you could again read my post from the 29th october 8.46.55pm and give me the courtesy of  HONEST  responses . In particular I again ask you this specific question .... Have you taken the time to have a quick look at and now better understand in part how ebays best offer listings work ? and if so do you conceed it is different to how you first thought?


*smee*

  • Action Group
  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 46860
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #82 on: October 31, 2009, 03:03:32 AM »
The reason I ask for a specific answer to this specific question is that if you read back through from the beginning of the thread you will note that , that is all I was querying you on was your statements and answers regarding the so called shilling or submitting offers on his own best offers listings I actually stated that a lot of what you said made sense ... you have failed to address my concerns on this and have twisted the arguement to try and suit your own cause again and tried to make it look like I am against all your points  and have tried to justify your  comments when Blind Freddie could see that you had erred and were barking up the wrong tree but rather than just admit this you were more interested in pushing your own barrow... this is why you have lost cred in my eyes and why some many others have a crack at you on other forums .... stick to what you know best , present the facts or bloody strong cicumstantial eveidence and you will find people will help you expose these cheats .... throw in too many hypertheticals ,what ifs , buts or maybe's and the case will in most instances be dismissed by most .... dont you think so ?

Philip.Cohen

  • Knight of the RT
  • ****
  • Posts: 350
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #83 on: October 31, 2009, 09:27:56 AM »
Ok Phil I would be very interested to see the results ... I trust that you will record  the actual results and report on them as actual fact and not manipulate , bend , fabricate or out right lie about or add any hypotheticals to them , lets just see the results as they come back and take it  from there...

just a couple of quick questions if I may ... and I would ask that you give them proper consideration and a thoughful short honest reply..... not kneejerk poppycock ...

Do you honestly think that you posting comments such as this help your cause or will  people be less likely to give your theories consideration  ? Frankly, I find it difficult to believe that you are not an eBay stooge and that your sole reason for being is to drag a smelly red herring around._________________   or in retrospect do you think it was perhaps a foolish  statement ? (no harm in admitting it , we have all posted stuff that sometimes we wish we could take back , in fact I notice that the removal of part of one of your earlier posts actually changed the perspective a little and possibly fooled some late comers to the thread ... I call that the Shuggy manouvre .... nice one  )   

Have you taken the time to have a quick look at and now better understand in part how ebays [sic] best offer listings work ? and if so do you conceed it is different to how you first thought?

Smee,

I don’t “know darn well” what you are referring to. I am not aware of directing any “outright insulting” remark at you. If you are referring to the remark “Frankly, I find it difficult to believe that you are not an eBay stooge and that your sole reason for being is to drag a smelly red herring around,” that remark is in an AuctionBytes (not Auctiva) post and was quite justifiably, in my opinion, directed at Tradguy.

If you are referring to some remark in a post on this forum then I can only say that I have no idea what it is other than to say (again) that I may edit my posts on AuctionBytes from time to time; posts on this forum only have a 30 minute editing window. So, I honestly don’t know what you are talking about. Maybe a moderator can peruse the archived post that you refer to and refresh our memories with the facts of the matter.

I am not interested in “twisting the argument”. I post under my real name; I don’t post my remarks from behind an anonymous alias; my intention is simply to put facts that, I believe, expose eBay as a desperately unscrupulous organisation, before the readers; I do offer an opinion as to what those facts, to me, logically suggest. We are all entitled to draw our own conclusions from those same facts; some may draw different conclusions to mine. Undoubtedly, Riff and Trad would do so. Such is the jury system—not perfect

Best Offer: I have already noted that I accept that there is no bidding competition on Best Offer; I think that you will find that that was never my point; my point was always simply the suggestion that the seller may be buying (accepting, if you like) his own Best Offers to make it look like his stuff was moving via the opaque Best Offer process; it was only ever a hypothetical; never presented as a fact.
“Today we’re dealing with phase two or phase three [he can’t even remember which one] of disruptive innovation. We’ve had the disruption, now we must disrupt our own disruption.”—John Donahoe (2007).

*smee*

  • Action Group
  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 46860
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #84 on: October 31, 2009, 10:28:16 AM »
okay Phil once again you appear to be reluctant to answer my question ! so lets go through this again ..... any chance you could answer this question with a yes or no or answer it it 2 parts with yes &/or no's . rather than dancing around the question ?
Have you taken the time to have a quick look at and now better understand in part how ebays best offer listings work ? and if so do you conceed it is different to how you first thought?  

Phil , This comment ..  know darn well” what you are referring to has nothing to do auctionbytes .... I am talking about your post here when you said that I do not belong on this forum and should be posting on ebay boards and toeing the ebay line there ... not those exact words I cant remember your exact words because they have been removed from your post after the event ... its why I replied with this comment ... its none of your business why I post here instead of on Ebay forums !!!! just who do you think you are coming out with that line???
come on Phil ... you know the one ... the "shuggy manouvre'

*CountessA*

  • Administrator
  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 35154
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #85 on: October 31, 2009, 01:08:59 PM »
Can we leave the personal side which this topic took to be discussed on a personal level by private message, if it requires that?

If reports are received and moderations made as a result, the admin/mod team will have indicated they will not allow acrimonious discussions and disagreements to escalate. Some posts or portions of posts WILL be removed as per the forum guidelines if called for. Those are the guidelines here. We give some leeway, in the interests of finding safe passage between freedom of expression and a safe environment for posting which also complies with the legislation.

I urge anyone who feels aggrieved or upset to communicate privately with a view to finding a peaceful solution. There won't always be one, but it's always worth trying.

This will be my only post on the issue.
"No man is an Iland, intire of it selfe; every man is ...a part of the maine; ...any mans death diminishes me, because I am involved in Mankinde"

Philip.Cohen

  • Knight of the RT
  • ****
  • Posts: 350
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #86 on: October 31, 2009, 01:38:12 PM »
This will be my last post on the personal aspects of this matter too. I do recall the matter you have just referred to. I don't recall removing it. Maybe a moderator did so ...

On the matter of Best Offers. I think that I have said all I want to say; I see no reason to continue to go around and around in pointless circles; the managing executives at eBay are doing enough of that for all of us ...
“Today we’re dealing with phase two or phase three [he can’t even remember which one] of disruptive innovation. We’ve had the disruption, now we must disrupt our own disruption.”—John Donahoe (2007).

*smee*

  • Action Group
  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 46860
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #87 on: October 31, 2009, 01:46:41 PM »
fair enough Phil , perhaps a moderator did remove it in which case on that point I stand corrected .
In relation to the best offer thing ,  you are right nothing more need be said , I am pretty sure everyone gets the picture , I rest my case your honour.  

cueperkins

  • Guest
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #88 on: October 31, 2009, 03:47:47 PM »
my point was always simply the suggestion that the seller may be buying (accepting, if you like) his own Best Offers to make it look like his stuff was moving via the opaque Best Offer process; it was only ever a hypothetical; never presented as a fact.

Hi Phil...I understand it's a hypothetical...but I have to ask why a seller would bother to make offers on their own products?  I'm not sure whether it would be an advantage for anything other than increasing one's feedback score?.   

I guess if someone is unscrupulous enough they'll try anything, but there would have to be a financial incentive.......It wouldn't be impossible, just unlikely in my viewpoint because there's no real benefit other than increasing feedback scores for a bigger sting down the line.... other than that, I'm just not sure what would be gained by a seller doing it. 

I wouldn't think a long standing seller on Ebay would be doing this kind of thing because they are already established sellers.  They don't need feedback points.

Do more sales for any given seller, push other items up the 'Best Match' hierarchy?....I recall one member saying something like that...on another thread about Best Match and how that works.   By the same token a seller can establish feedback simply by listing items at a low price, so why bother...just saying, there would have to be an incentive.

Countess started a thread where we discussed how Best Offer works....seems pretty straight forward....and I couldn't really see a way that sellers would benefit from making offers on their own items, to go to that much trouble.     

shyer

  • Knight of the RT
  • ****
  • Posts: 456
  • from UBB & yib thank you
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #89 on: October 31, 2009, 05:09:47 PM »
.....any given seller, push other items up the 'Best Match' hierarchy?....I recall one member saying something like that...on another thread about Best Match and how that works.

I did say that and I gave a personal example and links where ebay talks about views to sales ratios. View is not just a look at an item page it is also if item appears in a general search listing. Smee has claimed this ratio is not important in his experience. My point is that in some categories that I sell in, sales to view ratios are the most important rating in best match.

Take cameras for example a new Nikon model XXX sales will go to cheapest packages. They soon are at head of best match. Then Second hand models of XXX lots more views per sale because varying condition, warranty left etc. is now a factor. Now consider obsolete Model XX not just condition but accessories included, more possibilities views per sale.

So a seller if they have a quantity to sell, sometimes to rise to top of best match needs some BINs sold and maybe some best offers. The seller can always after item time is finished, claim fees back as a non paid or mutually cancelled item. And as phill points out "apparent" sales means various factors like must be a good deal or buy before none left, come into play.

*Brum6y*

  • Knights of the RT
  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 20152
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #90 on: October 31, 2009, 05:14:51 PM »
From my observations, both Philip.Cohen and Smee have valid points.

I do not believe Philip.Cohen was directing his thoughts at the mechanics of the Best Offer process as eBay have programmed it - but merely on the appearance of activity.  The same sort of psychology that applies when people use the term "rent-a-crowd".  From my own very limited exposure to live auctions with a real hammer, I have seen that there is a lot of energy put into the atmosphere to create interest, excitement ... and bids.  If you walk into an auction room with three people and a genuine Rolex up for auction with no reserve - are you going to throw a $50 bid at the pleading eyes of the auctioneer? I don't think so.  I'd be wondering "what's wrong with it?"

That being the case - how do you show interest on an eBay 'Best Offer' item?  How would you "rent a crowd" as it were?

Past that point, as I see it, Smee is quite correct about the benefits from the mechanics - with one exception, thanks to the 'Best Match' search.....


It has been postulated and demonstrated (from what I have read on this matter) that sales history has a big influence on standing in the 'Best Match' search.  Some have gone as far as to say it is THE overriding factor.

Shyer has even shared their experience which supports this...

(excerpt)
............... while I was learning about mis match.  I had nearly 50 watchers on a multiple bin of 8 clearance items and stuck in middle of best mis match search after 5 days . 1 item sold elsewhere and one in testing was faulty. I got friends to "buy " 2 items so if 8 buyers did bid ,first 6 I had item to sell , last 2 too late.

Soon as friends bought listing shot to top of 1st Page ( using featured plus as well) watchers within a day was over 70 and 4 sales before listing ended. When I relisted with 3 items still had watchers on compleated ad. New ad started at top of 1st page.


From what I have been able to pick out from my limited reading, for an item that you have hundreds of, you ALWAYS use "relist", so the previous sales history is picked up and your standing in 'Best Match' is much higher.


The other part of this is the product line.  Sellers with large quantities of a small range will benefit far more than sellers with a large range, but smaller quantities.  A thousand sales over 100 products will average 10 sales on each item - but over a smaller range of only 10 products, will average 100 sales each.  These latter items will be the ones that rank higher in 'Best Match'.


One last point that I must express is that, presuming my "rent-a-crowd" view is close to the mark - proof will be elusive.  Many purchasing decisions are calculated, true, but many more are not - especially when there is competition (or perceived competition).

My most clear and demonstrative example of care at auctions came from the one held at the homestead in the middle of the cattle yards at Homebush (now the site of Olympic Park) many years ago. I saw a solid oak table - grey, dry and with cracks you could put your fingers in sell for several hundred dollars. When I queried it with a bystander, they said a good restorer could do wonders with it.  I would have loved to have seen the result!

... but the memory that holds strong is of a woman sitting on the stone flagging along the side of the driveway with two red kitchen scales sitting next to her.  I said "Been buying?" (or something as casual).  Turning to look at them, she replied, in a defeated tone, "My husband bought them. I don't know why and one of them doesn't even work."

My interpretation: The auctioneer obviously knew his business.  Was he honest or unscrupulous?  I could not tell.

*smee*

  • Action Group
  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 46860
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #91 on: October 31, 2009, 05:16:27 PM »
good afternoon shyer , the absolute most important factor in best match is key words in your title .... agreed ? 

*Brum6y*

  • Knights of the RT
  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 20152
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #92 on: October 31, 2009, 05:20:26 PM »
Hi Smee.

Have spoken with a seller friend who has been playing with just that lately - and seems to have results that support your statement. (Early days and eBay sales have been flakey at the best of times)

They aren't in the business that will benefit from the 'sales history' factor I mentioned above, as they offer a wide range of products.

shyer

  • Knight of the RT
  • ****
  • Posts: 456
  • from UBB & yib thank you
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #93 on: October 31, 2009, 05:57:27 PM »
good afternoon shyer , the absolute most important factor in best match is key words in your title .... agreed ? 

Initially Yes, as time goes on the key words are the title words that have good sales to views ratios. For example I have been discussing in another thread cameras and a person has deceided to buy a panasonic lumnix DCM-FZ30 model new. Now seller A is BIN selling these with post for example at $500 with title " lumnix dmc fz30 new 12 months warranty standard extras " . Seller B enters market at $480 with title " panasonic dmc-fz30 factory accessories sealed 0ne year guarantee". You and I know that is identical item. For a computer not one word is identical and many more sales of $450 means first title is now a BAD best match title.

Ultimately I feel it is what ebay sees is "selling" is important in best match search. And established sellers become hard to move from top of best match search, and the cycle perpetuates itself. Even though 0ne is not a word (zero used instead of "o" and new seller fools everyone who tries to copy ) One is now not a good title word. 

*smee*

  • Action Group
  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 46860
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #94 on: October 31, 2009, 06:08:02 PM »
let me give you a simple easy to follow example , which is checkable for the next 15 or so minutes only because that when the listing finishes ... The example I will use relates to Rolex watches as thats what the seller the op refers too

go to ebay.com site do a search on rolex watches , result is 9,218 matches at number 3 on the list is item number 1730399242809 ... this item is listed by a seller  with a feedback total of 36 .... and yet his items appears in front of 295 rolex watches that the seller in Phils OP does and he has feedback in excess of 12000 and just about all of that feed back came from rolex watches ........ why is it so ..... because of the key words used in the title compared to the key words in my search !!!!!!!

*Brum6y*

  • Knights of the RT
  • Knight of the RT
  • *****
  • Posts: 20152
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #95 on: October 31, 2009, 06:25:40 PM »

 ..... because of the key words used in the title compared to the key words in my search !!!!!!!


That's the one thing that is so obvious whe you think about it - but I didn't fully appreciate the subtleties until my seller started playing with the unoffocial ebay search assessment tool.  It's a bit obscure to work with - but the main point is that the specific keywords used in the search by the buyer will be matched (supposedly) and the 'other' words in the item title NOT used by the buyer will have a strong influence on where the item is ranked.

After all, if they buyer searches for "Rolex watch" and there are 9,000 items with the words "Rolex" and "watch" in the title - how ARE they sorted?  Seems these 'other' words in the item title have a significant influence.

Bazza

  • Guest
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #96 on: October 31, 2009, 06:56:43 PM »
I couldn't agree more with your example at #94 Smee. A seller can buy as many of their own items as they like but if they get the keywords wrong, it's to no avail. A buyers search terms determine the best match, every other factor is secondary. Even shyers featured listing won't help if you don't think like a buyer.

Philip.Cohen

  • Knight of the RT
  • ****
  • Posts: 350
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #97 on: October 31, 2009, 07:32:21 PM »
Cupie,

I was never suggesting that the possibility that a seller might buy his own BINs or Best Offers occasionally had anything to do with feedback or Best Match: there is a flourishing trade in feedback going on, at $0.01 per free delivery item, (using private listings) on eBay and eBay cannot be but aware of such trade but does nothing about it.

It would be, as I have said a number of times, all about ensuring that listings have some sales so that the punters get the impression that the seller’s goods are moving and therefore must be of value; as others have also pointed out, there is no further cost involves as the FVF can be avoided with a claim of “buyer did not pay” and, if this is happening, eBay cannot but be aware of it as this is the main source of their revenue and undoubtedly in hard economic times such claims will greatly increase across the board.

As a buyer I am simply not interested in trying to understand Best Match or, as some call it, Worst Match. I simply don’t use it (that’s what setting preferences are for). Searches return lists based on the buyer’s set preferences and search string. If the buyer has not set any preferences then the new default search is Best Match and would appear to be eBay’s way of presenting a list of items to buyers, not for the benefit of buyers, but one that they think will benefit those sellers who are paying the most fees to eBay. Sounds logical to me. But then it’s not a problem for me as I have set my preferences for other than Best Match.

Having said that it still comes down to a combination of the key words in the primary description and the search string that the buyer inputs and one learns to be thoughtful about that search string to find the items one is looking for.

The deviousness of the Best Match matter is that sans any preferences set by the buyer, “ending soonest” used to be the default listing. Now eBay has introduced Best Match as the default. And there is only one reason why they would do that: they think that they can manipulate the list to produce a greater financial benefit to them.
“Today we’re dealing with phase two or phase three [he can’t even remember which one] of disruptive innovation. We’ve had the disruption, now we must disrupt our own disruption.”—John Donahoe (2007).

Bazza

  • Guest
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #98 on: October 31, 2009, 07:56:09 PM »
Philip, I tend to search by category as I know what I'm looking for and where to find it. I see absolutely no reason why ebay would set the default to best match other than to create a better buying experience and hence more profit. If someone is going to buy from ebay, ebay don't care who makes the sale. There is no additional benefit for ebay to push one seller aside for another. Even if you factor in poor DSR's vs good DSR's (or sales volumes etc....), if the seller has used bad keywords, with best match, there is no advantage.

tinker

  • New Knight
  • *
  • Posts: 30
Re: Secrets of Success on eBay
« Reply #99 on: November 01, 2009, 12:12:09 AM »
Yes, I think your spot on there Bazza. I do two searches, one by key word and then by category, I always change the best matched to ending soonest.

I really don’t think anyone with 1/2 a brain would bother with best matched and I feel most every seller knows this.

I just don’t understand why a seller would jeopardise their business so it "looks" like their stuff is moving, moving where? what do they do with it once it "sells" resell it? over and over??